Nasdaq 100 Rally: Microsoft Leads, Tesla Lags

Nasdaq 100 rallies are not that unusual over the past few years but last week’s up move demonstrated a new twist for the Big 7 of the index that represent the large market capitalization names from the tech and social media world. Microsoft
MSFT
led strongly, as it usually does, but Tesla
TSLA
is showing definite weakness now.

Wall Street investment managers, under great pressure to outperform each other, are excited to think that a “soft landing” for the economy has landed and that interest rates have bottomed. So they buy the Nasdaq 100’s Big 7 like they’re going out of style and another rally seems to have blossomed.

I don’t completely buy that assessment as I indicate right here, but let’s look at the price charts.

Nasdaq 100, Microsoft, Tesla price charts.

The Nasdaq 100 daily chart is here:

The rally coming off of the late October low is definitely in place now with several closes above the 50-day moving average (the blue line) and a break above the early October high. The next obvious target is the July high just above the 15800 level. Note the steady up trend of the 200-day moving average (the red line).

Here’s the weekly price chart for the Nasdaq 100:

If the index can clear that 15800 area, then the next target would be the late 2021 highs up above 16500. The Nasdaq 100 has been trending upward, for the most part, since the October, 2022 low. It’s a positive, for sure, that both the 50-week and the 200-week moving averages are up trending.

The daily price chart for Microsoft looks like this:

The Bill Gates-led software company is doing much better, price-wise, than the Nasdaq 100 index as a whole. Last week’s new high of $369 takes out the mid-July high of $365. The stock’s 50-day moving average and its 200-day moving average are both trending higher. Note that that relative strength indicator (RSI, below the price chart) has reached an “overbought” level.

The Microsoft weekly price chart is here:

This week’s new high breaks out above the high from July. The 50-day moving average is turned upward early this year and continues higher. The 200-day moving average trends higher relentlessly. The relative strength indicator shows a possibly “overbought” condition.

Here’s the daily price chart for Tesla:

Notice how unlike this is compared to the Microsoft daily price chart: there is no new high for Tesla. In fact, at $214 it’s quite a distance below the July high of $300. The stock has closed below the 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average is now trending lower.

The weekly price chart for Tesla is here:

While Microsoft is now above its previous weekly highs, Elon Musk’s car company is much lower. It looks as if the 50-week moving average may be about to cross below the 200-week moving average, which would be a negative look.

Previously, the big tech and social media stocks of the Nasdaq 100 have tended to trend together — but this time around, that’s not the case, as you can see by comparing the Microsoft and Tesla charts.

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