South Korean leftwinger Lee Jae-myung set to win presidential election, exit poll shows

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Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung is set to win South Korea’s presidential election, according to an exit poll released after the close of voting on Tuesday evening.

The exit poll by three leading South Korean broadcasters puts Lee, candidate of the leftwing Democratic party, in first place with 51.7 per cent of the vote, well ahead of rival Kim Moon-soo, of the conservative People Power party, on 39.3 per cent in the first-past-the-post election.

The exit poll was broadly in line with surveys conducted during the late stages of the campaign, but only included citizens who voted on polling day. More than a third of the electorate cast their ballots earlier.

Tuesday’s election followed six months of political turmoil triggered by then-president Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law in December last year. The resulting crisis led to Yoon’s impeachment by the opposition-controlled national assembly and his removal in April by South Korea’s constitutional court.

South Koreans had made a “fiery judgment against the insurrection regime”, Democratic party acting leader Park Chan-dae told broadcaster KBS after the exit poll was released.

Lee, 61, had lost to Yoon by a margin of less than 1 per cent in the previous South Korean presidential election in 2022. He takes over leadership of Asia’s fourth-largest economy at a time of slowing growth, trade tensions with the US and intensifying competition from Chinese companies.

The former factory worker has promised to expand public spending and invest in South Korea’s advanced manufacturing capabilities. He is also expected to try to improve his country’s ties with China and Russia, and to pursue closer engagement with North Korea.

Tuesday’s voter turnout at 77.9 per cent was higher than the 77.1 per cent recorded in 2022.

Sangsin Lee, a research fellow and polling expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification (Kinu), said that if Lee’s projected vote share was confirmed, it would be the biggest achieved by a presidential candidate since South Korea’s democratisation in 1987.

“While 51.7 per cent may appear only slightly above the majority threshold, in the context of Korean politics, it represents a decisive victory,” he said.

Lee, who campaigned in 2022 as a leftwing firebrand but tacked to the centre after the conservatives were left in disarray by Yoon’s martial law declaration, appeared to have made significant gains in the country’s south-east conservative heartlands.

“This election may not only be seen as Lee Jae-myung’s personal victory, but also as a historic turning point in South Korean politics,” Lee of Kinu said.